Exploring the Potential Risks and Benefits of Emerging Technologies with Jason Matheny
Engaging in a conversation with Jason Matheny, the CEO and president of Rand Corporation, is an enlightening experience, especially if you’re prepared to delve into the potential risks and benefits of emerging technologies and their impact on society.
A Career Focused on Analyzing Potential Catastrophes
Matheny, an economist specializing in public health, has dedicated his career to examining potential technological and biomedical catastrophes. His journey has taken him through the realms of pharmaceutical development, cultivated meat, and national security.
The Dangers of Biological Weapons and AI
As the former director of Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, Matheny advocated for increased attention to the risks posed by biological weapons and poorly designed AI systems. He cited the example of the Japanese doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo, which initially attempted to fulfill their prophecy of global annihilation using rudimentary 1990s biology before resorting to chemical weapons in the Tokyo subway sarin attack.
According to Matheny, former President Barack Obama expressed concerns about the potential of AI to fuel new cyberattacks and the constant worry of pandemics:
Obama warned that AI could power new cyberattacks and said that he spent “a lot of time worrying” about pandemics.
The Future of Cyber Warfare and Autonomous Weapons
Matheny ponders the long-term implications of AI-powered cyber offense and defense, questioning whether there will be a natural advantage for either side as the technology scales. He also discusses the possibility of entering a “hyperwar” due to the increasing reliance on autonomous weapons in situations where communication with human operators is compromised.
While some analyses suggest that autonomous weapons may result in fewer civilian casualties compared to human combatants under stress, Matheny highlights the uncertainty surrounding the future of these weapons and the potential advantage they may provide to autocracies over democracies.
Rand’s Increased Focus on China
Matheny explains Rand Corporation’s decision to increase its investment in analyzing China, particularly in areas where there are gaps in understanding its economy, industrial policy, and domestic politics. He emphasizes the importance of accurately assessing the strengths and weaknesses in various areas of competition between the US and China, as well as identifying areas of mutual benefit and collaboration.
The Effectiveness of US Export Controls on Advanced Chips
Matheny discusses the effectiveness of US export controls on advanced chips, such as Nvidia’s H100s, to China. He raises questions about China’s ability to obtain these chips through alternative means or develop their own, albeit less advanced, chips that may still be sufficient for certain military capabilities.
He also highlights the ethical concerns surrounding the use of Nvidia chips in China’s Xinjiang data center, which is being used to monitor Uighur prison camps in real time, as reported by Paul Mozur of the New York Times.
Ultimately, Matheny emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough mathematical analyses to inform policy decisions regarding emerging technologies and their potential risks and benefits.
2 Comments
Seriously, since when did we start treating AI like it’s plotting our downfall?
Oh, suddenly every tech advancement is a national threat? Please.